Explain conditional probability in everyday language

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Lesson Plan · Guided Notes · Exit Ticket · Re-teach · Homework

Lesson Plan →Objectives, pacing and practice, built from this lesson's brief.
Guided Notes →One page your students fill in and keep.
Exit Ticket →Three items at the end of class. No student accounts.
Re-teach →After an exit ticket: who missed what, and what to do tomorrow.
Homework →Assign practice; it grades itself.

HSS.CP.A.5

**HSS.CP.A.5**: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

HSS.CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

What you'll learn

Identify conditional-probability statements in everyday language, recognizing phrases such as "given that," "if you are," and "among those who"
Explain, in plain words, why P(A | B) and P(B | A) are generally different, using the lung-cancer/smoker comparison
Describe independence in everyday terms ("knowing one tells you nothing about the other") and give examples and non-examples
Translate real situations - weather, sports, health, advertising - into informal conditional-probability and independence statements
Critique everyday probabilistic claims that confuse the direction of conditioning or wrongly assume independence

Review first:

Slides

Step through the lesson, or watch it as a narrated video • 2 slide decks

Spotting and direction

✓ Start here

Watch as video

Independence and critique

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Practice

Try it on your own

Exercise

Practice problems, checked as you go

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