Find conditional probability from a model

Start lessonBegins with Restricting and counting · Slides

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Lesson Plan →Objectives, pacing and practice, built from this lesson's brief.
Guided Notes →One page your students fill in and keep.
Exit Ticket →Three items at the end of class. No student accounts.
Re-teach →After an exit ticket: who missed what, and what to do tomorrow.
Homework →Assign practice; it grades itself.

HSS.CP.B.6

**HSS.CP.B.6**: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

HSS.CP.B.6: Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B's outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

What you'll learn

Compute P(A | B) in a uniform model by restricting to B's outcomes and finding the fraction of them that also belong to A
Connect the counting approach, |A and B| / |B|, to the formula P(A and B) / P(B) from HSS.CP.A.3, explaining why they agree
Find conditional probabilities from sample-space lists, Venn diagrams, and two-way tables by restricting to B
Interpret each conditional probability in terms of the model and its context
Explain that conditioning on B changes the effective sample space to B, so the denominator is the number of B's outcomes

Review first:

Slides

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Restricting and counting

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Representations and interpreting

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Practice

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Exercise

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