Analyze decisions and strategies using probability

Start lessonBegins with The frame and testing decisions · Slides

Teacher tools for this standard

Lesson Plan · Guided Notes · Exit Ticket · Re-teach · Homework

Lesson Plan →Objectives, pacing and practice, built from this lesson's brief.
Guided Notes →One page your students fill in and keep.
Exit Ticket →Three items at the end of class. No student accounts.
Re-teach →After an exit ticket: who missed what, and what to do tomorrow.
Homework →Assign practice; it grades itself.

HSS.MD.B.7

**HSS.MD.B.7**: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

HSS.MD.B.7: (+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

What you'll learn

Analyze a real decision by identifying the strategies, uncertain outcomes, probabilities, and payoffs
Use expected value to compare strategies, and recognize when risk or error-cost asymmetry should modify the expected-value choice
Apply conditional probability to evaluate testing decisions, computing P(condition | positive) and explaining the base-rate effect
Analyze a strategic timing decision (pulling the hockey goalie) by comparing each strategy's net effect on the probability of winning
Communicate a probability-based recommendation that states its assumptions and limitations

Review first:

Slides

Step through the lesson, or watch it as a narrated video • 2 slide decks

The frame and testing decisions

✓ Start here

Watch as video

Strategy timing and risk

Watch as video

Practice

Try it on your own

Exercise

Practice problems, checked as you go

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