Back to Exercise: Assess fit by analyzing residuals

Exercises: Assess Fit by Analyzing Residuals

Work through each section in order. A residual is observed minus
predicted: positive when the data point is ABOVE the model, negative
when below. Keep the sign. When reading a residual plot, remember the
key idea: random scatter around zero means a GOOD fit, while a clear
pattern (a curve or a fan) means the model is wrong.

Grade 10·20 problems·~35 min·Common Core Math - HS Statistics and Probability·standard·hss-id-b-6b
Work through problems with immediate feedback
A

Warm-Up: What Is a Residual?

These problems review the residual definition and its sign.

1

A function is fitted to data. For one data point, the observed value is 1414 and the model's predicted value is 1717. What is the residual at this point?

2

A line y=0.10x+20y = 0.10x + 20 models a phone bill, where xx is minutes used. At x=50x = 50 minutes a customer was actually charged $26\text{\char"0024}26. The model predicts 0.10(50)+20=$250.10(50) + 20 = \text{\char"0024}25. What is the residual (observed −- predicted) for this customer?

3

A student builds a residual plot and expects it to look just like the original scatter plot of the data. Why is that expectation wrong?

B

Fluency Practice

Compute residuals and read residual plots.

A scatter plot with a fitted line; a dashed vertical segment marks the residual between one data point and the line.
1

The scatter plot below shows data with a fitted line. For the highlighted point, the observed value is 3030 and the line predicts 3434 at that xx. What is the residual (observed −- predicted)?

2

A line y^=2x+5\hat{y} = 2x + 5 is fitted to data. At x=4x = 4 the observed value is 1111. Compute the residual (observed −- predicted) at this point.

3

You have these residuals at the given xx-values: (1,+2)(1, +2), (2,−1)(2, -1), (3,+3)(3, +3), (4,−2)(4, -2). To build the residual plot, where does the point for x=3x = 3 go relative to the zero line?

A residual plot with points scattered randomly above and below a dashed horizontal zero line, showing no pattern.
4

The residual plot below shows residuals scattered randomly around the zero line with no clear pattern. What does this say about the fit of the model?

5

A residual plot shows a clear U-shaped pattern: the residuals are positive at the left and right ends and negative in the middle. What is the most likely problem, and what should you do?

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